STRiDE - Strategies for Resilience in Disruptive Environments

Global supply chains are at a critical turning point, facing an increasing number of disruptions and rapid trade policy changes. Beyond natural disasters such as earthquakes and hurricanes, emerging disruptions such as frequent policy shifts, the Russia-Ukraine war, the Red Sea crisis, regional protectionism, and the under-regulation of generative AI (GenAI) applications are posing significant threats to the stability and security of global supply chains. As a crucial component of the global supply network, the logistics sector must navigate these threats, which in turn reshape logistics flows. Changes in supply chain structures create new demands for transportation routes, warehousing strategies, and distribution networks, requiring both immediate responses to short-term disruptions and long-term strategic adjustments to enhance logistic resilience against future disruptions.

We present STRiDE (Strategies for Resilience in Disruptive Environments), an applied research project that examines and enhances the responsiveness and resilience of global supply chains and Dutch logistics in the face of both human-driven disruptions, stemming from geopolitical risks, and machine-driven disruptions, arising from the under- regulation of generative artificial intelligence applications.

STRiDE focuses on providing tools that enable logistics companies to identify and quantify potential risks related to geopolitical and GenAI disruptions while offering alternative strategic options. The project is inspired by the challenges faced by logistics companies dealing with increasing uncertainty and disruptions and aims to quantify the impact of both human-driven and machine-driven disruptions in logistics operations, equipping professionals with strategies and tools to anticipate and mitigate these effects more effectively. To achieve this, STRiDE has the following key objectives:

1. Develop interactive scenario planning and AI-driven contingency planning tools in a realistic logistics setting that incorporate a Geopolitical Risk Impact Index (GRII) and a Generative AI Index (GAII) to create a realistic, data-driven simulation environment for supply chain professionals. By providing real-time dashboards and visualization tools and applying logistics-specific simulation contexts, these tools will allow decision-makers to assess potential threats and model adaptive responses to geopolitical and AI-related risks.
2. Develop a systematic and visible company-level measurement on the impact of both human-driven geopolitical disruptions (e.g., policy changes, labor strikes, executive decision biases) and machine-driven disruptions (e.g., GenAI-driven misinformation, intractable responsibilities). Leveraging large-scale empirical data and data driven analytics, this framework will distinguish between the effects of geopolitical risks and generative AI risks, assessing their direct and indirect consequences on global supply chains.
3. Design tailored risk mitigation strategy portfolios that help businesses adapt to evolving risks arising from trade policy shifts, international conflicts, and AI-driven uncertainties. These strategies will support company-level strategic decision making, enabling companies to proactively respond to geopolitical tensions and AI related disruptions while ensuring long-term resilience.
   Our diverse research team brings together expertise across multiple disciplines, including operations and supply chain management, economics, strategy, optimization, and public relations. In addition, our consortium includes two committed companies, offering real-world simulation contexts and business applications. Their active participation highlights their commitment to adopting and further developing the geopolitical risks and generative AI scenario planning tools that will be developed in this project.