Problem Context
Medicine shortages are a growing problem in the Dutch healthcare system. In 2023, approximately five million people experienced supply problems. These shortages are partly due to strict price regulations and purchasing practices that put pressure on manufacturers' profit margins. As a result, manufacturers are leaving the market, the Netherlands is at the back of the queue when supply problems arise, and there is less room for investment in resilience.
To combat this problem, the government has announced numerous measures, including the mandatory maintenance of a minimum stock ("iron stock") and adjustments to pricing regulations. While these measures potentially contribute to improved availability, they also entail risks, such as rising costs and reduced affordability of medicines.

Approach
This project focuses on developing differentiated policies that take into account the specific characteristics of different medicines, such as price, risk of shortages, and the number of available suppliers. A uniform policy measure has proven insufficiently effective.
The approach involves gathering insights through interviews and data analysis, in collaboration with relevant stakeholders such as healthcare providers, policymakers, and suppliers. Based on this, policy recommendations will be formulated. A practical tool, an Excel spreadsheet, will also be developed, allowing policymakers to evaluate the effects of various policy options.

Expected Results
The project will result in policy proposals aimed at improving the availability of medicines without leading to unnecessary cost increases. Expected concrete results include:

  • Reduction of medicine shortages (up to 20%)
  • Reduction of the risk of manufacturers ceasing supply (up to 50% for vulnerable medicines)
  • A practical tool for policymakers to evaluate policy options
    In addition, a generic approach will be developed that can be applied to other policies, such as sanctions for supply problems and insured care. This will contribute to a future-proof pharmaceutical sector, both nationally and internationally.

Consortium Logic
The project will be carried out by a consortium with extensive expertise in medicine shortages, data analysis, and policy development. It will build on previous research and collaborate with parties with relevant data and practical experience. This collaboration enables rapid switching between theory and practice and increases the chance that the developed solutions will actually be applied.

Stay up to date with the latest news