UNDERSTANDING BUSINESS CYCLES IN THE UPSTREAM CHEMICAL INDUSTRY

Large-scale maintenance activities typical to the upstream process industry explain a fair share of product price spread variance of commodity chemicals. A forecast model covering a six months horizon for relevant product price spreads based on planned maintenance activities, historical oil prices and GDP growth is created. A System Dynamics model is applied to a hydrocarbon supply chain providing a volume forecast feature. Recommendations for further applications of the model are given.